2022 Aquifer Conditions Review

Stage III Signs Along FM 1626 

2022 began with a status of “No Drought” due to a wet spring and summer 2021, narrowly keeping spring flow and aquifer levels from dipping below Alarm Drought (Stage II) thresholds. However, below-average rainfall from winter 2021 through summer 2022 wasn’t enough to keep levels from declining. By June 2022, Barton Springs and Lovelady crossed under their Stage II thresholds and the Board declared a Stage II Alarm Drought on June 9, 2022. Levels declined throughout the summer as La Niña conditions - entering a third consecutive year - brought warmer and drier climate to the Hill Country. 

The fall provided little relief and on October 20, 2022, Critical Drought (Stage III) was declared as the Lovelady Monitor Well passed below its Stage III threshold on October 17, 2022.

A combined 8.2 inches of rain fell from January to April (0.8 inches below historical average), which provided enough recharge to keep spring flow and water levels hovering just above the Stage II Alarm Drought thresholds. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) announced that La Niña conditions built up strength in February and were favored to continue into the summer. The impact of drier-than-usual conditions early in the year were seen in regional aquifers when Barton Springs flow began to decline in early February and Lovelady water level followed in early March.

A combined 6.7 inches of spring rain fell from March through June, almost 7 inches below historical average. May and June, which are historically the wettest months of the year in Central Texas, were both well below their historical monthly averages (-2.8 & -2.7 respectively). In fact, both May and June 2022 were documented as the warmest on record in Austin, which perpetuated the downward spring flow and water level trends. With Barton Springs and Lovelady water levels falling below their respective Stage II Alarm thresholds in early June, the Board declared Stage II Alarm Drought conditions on June 9, 2022.

In July 2022, the CPC predicted a high probability for La Niña to persist into fall and early winter. This indicated that aquifer conditions were likely destined for intensifying drought. A combined 5.6 inches of rain from July to October (5.5 inches below historical monthly average) and a 38-day dry stretch from early September to mid-October provided little-to-no recharge. Aquifer levels and spring flow continued to decline and on October 17th the Lovelady Monitor Well crossed under its Stage III threshold triggering the Board to declare Stage III Critical Drought on October 20, 2022. 

Rain in November 2022

A wetter-than-normal November, providing an average of 3.0 inches, joined only February and August in reaching its historical monthly average. While this welcomed rain provided a good ground soaking, it contributed very little flow to area creeks and a small response in water level and spring flow. Continuing with the below average trend, December came up 1 inch short of its historical average of 2.4 inches.

To summarize, the Austin/Hill Country ended 2022 as the region’s driest year since the drought-plagued and heat-record setting year of 2011, with an average 21 inches of rainfall in 2022. This was 13 inches below the annual average and just over half as much as the 36 inches in 2021. Forecasted below-average rainfall with persistent La Niña conditions indicate we could be in for a dry spring 2023. However, things could change for the better after the Spring.  

The National Weather Service provided the latest ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) outlook. Although La Niña conditions remain in place, a return to ENSO-neutral conditions is imminent. Later in 2023, odds favor El Niño development. This would bring wetter, cooler than normal weather for South Central Texas by late fall or winter, if El Niño does develop. It should be noted that many of our historical floods have happened during El Niño.

Official NOAA CPC ENSO Probabilities (issued Jan. 2023) 

Conservation continues to be the best practice for all of Central Texas as we anticipate dry conditions to come. We are off to a slow start when it comes to precipitation. Check out the rain hydrograph below.

As a reminder, the District remains in Critical Drought (Stage III).  Permittees should refer to the monthly drought allocations listed in their User Drought Conservation Plan (UDCP) and Drought Target Charts. Planting native or drought-tolerant landscapes, mulching, and using compost can substantially reduce the amount of irrigation water required to keep plants healthy. Making sure your irrigation system is functioning at peak efficiency and replacing leaking gaskets and hoses can help conserve water. Installing a rain barrel or rainwater harvesting system can make an even bigger impact in reducing overall water use.

The District recommends that both exempt and permitted well owners follow these conservation tips. For additional information on groundwater wells, please take a look at the District's Well Owner Guide. If you have questions about your well, please contact us at 512-282-8441. We encourage you to call or visit our office (1124 Regal Row, Austin, TX) during office hours (8 a.m. to 5 p.m.) to review our groundwater management process, receive information about the drought, or if you need assistance with other groundwater related matters.

Useful links:

Drought Information
Frequently Asked Questions
Drought Media Tool Kit
Drought Status Page
Drought Management Page

   

 

Drought Update - Jan. 4, 2023

We currently remain in Critical Drought status (Stage III). It was officially declared on October 20, 2022. One of the District’s drought triggers, Lovelady Monitor Well, passed below its Critical Drought (Stage III) trigger on October 17, 2022.

December rainfall delivered an average of 1.44 inches across the District. This is about 1 inch short of the historical December average of 2.4 inches. While any rain is good rain in a drought, December yielded little aquifer recharge. Any benefit for surface vegetation was unfortunately counteracted by the late-December arctic outbreak which dropped temperatures as low as 10 degrees Fahrenheit in some parts of the Hill Country.

The Hill Country ended 2022 with cumulative rainfall of about 13 inches below the normal 34 inches (figure 1). According to data from the National Weather Service published in the Austin American Statesman, this makes 2022 the region’s driest year since the drought-plagued and heat-record-setting year of 2011, with 68 days of triple-digit temperatures. Because of this, aquifer levels and spring flow in the Edwards and Trinity have received little help and drought conditions continue to worsen.

Figure 1 Monthly deviation from avg. and monthly total rainfall in BSEACD territory

On January 3, the Lovelady well had a level of 461.0 ft msl, 1.7 ft below the trigger level for Critical drought (Stage III) and about 4 ft above Stage IV Exceptional drought (figure 2). Lovelady crossed under the Stage II trigger on May 26 and under Stage III on October 17.

Figure 2. Lovelady monitoring well water elevation level

Also on January 3, Barton Springs was flowing at 26 cfs (10-day average), 12 cfs below the Stage II Alarm drought trigger point of 38 cfs (figure 3). The Stage III Critical trigger is 20 cfs. Barton Springs crossed under the Stage II drought trigger in late June and could cross into Stage III in late January if we receive no additional rain.

Figure 3. Barton Springs flow

The Austin/Hill Country area has received below annual average rainfall in 2022 in part due to ongoing La Niña conditions (declared by NOAA on 10/14/21). Climate scientists forecast these below-average rainfall and above-average heat conditions to continue into the winter and a dry spring 2023. 

It’s not until February that we could return to neutral conditions (neither La Niña or El Niño). With current conditions in mind, let’s begin 2023 with a renewed “resolution” to conserve water and amp up our resilience through this significant period of Central Texas drought.